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Food North America. Photo by Monivette Cordeiro. Two years ago, Betsy Franceschini was getting at least inquiries a day to her Kissimmee office from Puerto Ricans desperate for a better life. Thousands of families fled the U.
As the director of Florida's regional Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration office, Franceschini helped new arrivals connect with agencies that could provide help with housing, food and other services. It was overwhelming then — but Franceschini says it's nothing compared to the "unprecedented" exodus of Puerto Ricans who are now trying to escape deteriorating conditions on the demolished colony in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Almost 70 days after the destructive storm tore through the island's weak infrastructure, the situation remains intolerable — a significant portion of the 3.
In two months, tens of thousands of people have fled to the mainland, with the majority headed to established Puerto Rican strongholds in Florida, especially Orlando. Franceschini, who now heads Hispanic Federation's Florida office, and other community members have been working for weeks to provide the island's hurricane victims with food donations, housing, access to jobs, health care and even English classes.
The Puerto Rican exodus to Florida is so massive it could surpass the number of Cuban refugees who escaped to Miami during the Mariel boatlift in or the number of New Orleans evacuees who fled to Houston in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, says Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute and professor of anthropology at Florida International University.
Duany says a conservative estimate from a report by the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College projects that between , and , people will leave the island annually after Maria, a jump from the 89, who left in In two years, the report estimates, Puerto Rico will lose 14 percent of its population, or , residents.
Florida, which already has more than 1 million Puerto Ricans, is expected to receive the most evacuees — since Oct. Duany says that number, though, doesn't reflect how many people are staying or include evacuees who came on cruise ships.
We may be seeing something like that given the magnitude of destruction that was created in Puerto Rico after the hurricane. While politicians have desperately analyzed how the Puerto Rican exodus could turn Florida's voter base blue Puerto Ricans tend to vote Democrat , less examination has been given to how politics could change on the island.
The continued loss of population, which Duany says has mostly consisted of young people between the ages of 18 to 45, would decrease the island's tax base.
Before Maria, federal lawmakers had already established a fiscal control board over the commonwealth's budget, which imposed harsh austerity cuts that have affected schools and universities. President Donald Trump's perceived negligence toward the island after Maria and ugly public spats with Puerto Rican officials could also shift the island's opinion on retaining its status as a commonwealth or becoming a state, Duany says, but it's too soon to tell — Puerto Ricans are still in shock, and immediate needs like water, electricity and food haven't been met.
Darren Soto says a mass depopulation of the island would "strongly hurt their ability to recover. But we do understand that we have to fix the island's resources, so that people are only coming here because they want to — not because their schools are closed or they don't have jobs available or can't get basic utilities. Jose Luis Rivera, a student at the University of Central Florida, is one of the thousands of young people who moved to Orlando before Maria to find better opportunities.
Now, as the president of the new UCF Puerto Rican Student Association, he and other students are helping evacuees who are enrolling in the university.
Chicago Cook County, IL , which had the third largest Puerto Rican population in —, also saw little growth over the period. Table 4. Inflows from Puerto Rico account for only part of the growth of the Puerto Rican population in Florida and other states.
Puerto Ricans also move between states, and the population changes through natural increase [1] as well. Figure 4 compares the annual inflows from Puerto Rico to Florida to the migration flows of Puerto Ricans moving from other states to Florida during [2]. Interestingly, in all years but and , there were more Puerto Ricans moving from other states to Florida than moving from the island itself.
However, migration from Puerto Rico has increased over the period while the migration of Puerto Ricans from other states has been relatively flat.
Furthermore, migration flows of Puerto Ricans from Florida to other states also exceeded flows from Florida to Puerto Rico over that period, making the net exchange more balanced data not shown. Figure 4. Other States, — Over the twelve year period, about , Puerto Ricans moved from other states to Florida, about , moved from Florida to other states, resulting in a net gain of about , Puerto Rican residents.
Florida had positive net migration flows with only four of these nine states, as more Puerto Ricans moved from Florida to Texas, Massachusetts, Ohio, Georgia, and California than vice versa. Table 5. The Puerto Rican population in Florida has grown substantially since , especially in Central Florida. Virgin Islands in late September of has raised questions about the demographic impacts on Florida.
Since early October, large numbers of residents have been reported leaving Puerto Rico and moving to the U. Data on actual flows, however, are still quite sparse, and estimates of the overall size of the flow — both current and for the near future — vary widely. Flight arrival data provide some information, but have historically overstated actual migration flows by wide margins. This is because most air passengers are not migrants, but tourists, people traveling for business, those visiting family and friends, etc.
Virgin Islanders moving to Florida permanently in response to the impacts of Hurricane Maria. It is a reasonable estimate, given the available information at the time, but the eventual number could turn out quite differently. To us, this estimate seems somewhat conservative; we note, however, that some of the higher estimates that have circulated in the news appear to be highly speculative given the available data.
However, they are still valuable when done with care, for they do provide information. The death data, however, are only provided for Hispanics without further origin detail.
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